The European meteorological service Copernicus' report revealed that, during the year 2024, the average temperature of the earth was 1.5° C higher than the averages of the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), bringing forward by 26 years the target of 1.5° C established for the year 2050 in the Paris agreement of 2015.

When historically analysing the temperature on earth in this century, an alarming acceleration is observed that exceeds the forecasts made and that allows us to foresee that the limits of increase of 2° C will be reached much earlier than estimated, placing life on the planet in real danger.

The general conclusion that it is anthropomorphic action with the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, agriculture and livestock, etc. that is behind this increase in temperature due to the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, does not explain by itself this caloric acceleration. It must be understood that our planet is a system, in which its components are intertwined with each other. In the case of the climate, human action has served as a dynamo to trigger physical, chemical and biological processes, which, having the characteristic of being positive and complex feedback, begin to have a heterogeneous evolution, with a life of their own, which in some cases will not stop even if humanity abstains from emitting these gases, and for whose catastrophic and inevitable effects we must prepare ourselves from now on, especially the poorest countries that suffer them the most.

Although they are not the only ones, below we point out four of these processes that, in our view, have a greater impact on the increase of this caloric mechanics:

1 Low clouds.

A study published in the journal Science concludes that the rapid increase in warming has been enhanced by a shortage of low clouds over the oceans, since having fewer low and bright clouds means that they have reduced their capacity to reflect the sun's energy back into space, in a phenomenon known as "albedo", so that energy reaches the planet directly, warming it even more. The absence of low clouds is related to the increase in temperature on the surface of the oceans, so that, as there is more heat in them, there are fewer low clouds, and as there are fewer low clouds, there will be more heat.

Given the immensity of the oceans, the surface covered by low clouds is enormous and therefore, their "albedo" capacity is enormous and, in turn, the impact if this is reduced is enormous.

Satellite image from December 2016

Satellite image from December 2024

In the images above you can see how, due to the decrease in clouds, in just a few years the ocean areas have increased their areas exposed to the sun.

2. Disappearance of the Arctic.

This huge mass of ice has been melting at a rapid rate, to the point that it is estimated that it may disappear in a few years and with it, its albedo capacity. This will impact ecosystems and the global climate, modifying meteorological patterns, threatening habitats crucial to the life of various species, raising the sea level, submerging islands and coasts that are currently inhabited and also allowing the emergence of its permafrost, the layer of frozen earth under the ice, releasing the gigantic quantities of CO2 retained by plants before freezing (almost double that in the atmosphere).

In the NASA image, its reduction from its original size can be seen, shown in the yellow line.

3 Disappearance of AMOC

Another very serious element, which has not been widely publicised, is the Atlantic Ocean current system or AMOC, which is showing the first signs of collapse, as indicated by a supercomputer after introducing current data on global warming.

The enormous importance of this current is its function of transporting warmer water from the south to the north of the ocean and cold water in the opposite direction, stabilising the climate. If these currents were to stop, it would be catastrophic because it would change the climate drastically, making it very cold towards the north, with temperatures of up to -30°C and extremely hot towards the south. No measure that is taken will be able to successfully deal with such marked changes in temperature.

The graph shows how the AMOC system works.

4. Droughts and floods.

The combination of the indiscriminate felling of large areas of forests and the relentless increase in heat has caused large areas of green areas to suffer extreme droughts, creating conditions conducive to the origin and spread of large forest fires, thus eliminating the very important function of forests in storing CO2, which, together with the sharp reductions in the flow of rivers and lakes (even leading to their disappearance) due to the lack of rain, ends up causing the phenomenon of desertification to grow, significantly affecting agriculture, especially in the weakest countries.

UNION OF LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES IS IMPERATIVE

The above leads to the definitive conclusion that Climate Change will increase rapidly, with its burden of calamities for humanity that will fall, mostly, on the peoples of the poorest countries.

Unfortunately, the nations responsible for the emission of the largest amount of greenhouse gases care very little about this situation. On the contrary, at the height of shamelessness, they propose to take advantage of the natural changes that this change brings for their own benefit, as seen in the case of the melting of the Arctic, which instead of becoming aware of the seriousness of this, its leaders have begun a battle to see which nation will keep the minerals that can now be exploited.

Given this, it is imperative that Latin American countries, which are the ones that have suffered and will suffer the most from its consequences, urgently design a common agenda that allows them to confront or mitigate them. And that necessarily involves their union.

The objective conditions are in place. The population of countries with progressive governments in the region totals more than 450 million inhabitants.

The subjective conditions will be met when the leadership of these countries realizes the need to adapt to the profound changes experienced by humanity in recent years. Today's world has nothing to do with that of the last century, or even with that of 2018. This is a consequence of the COVID 19 pandemic, the "new geopolitics" and its irrational wars in Ukraine, Sudan and the genocide in Gaza, the virtual dismantling and inoperability of the main international organizations and the harsh reality of Climate Change, rather than a threat.

Unfortunately, on the other hand, those nations governed by leaders who deny Climate Change and who defend the interests of the great polluting powers, do present themselves with a solid common conduct, with very clear political and economic objectives (within which the fight against Climate Change is not included) as we have recently seen in the cases of Ecuador, Peru, Panama, Mexico and Venezuela, to mention the most outstanding ones.